INTENTION TO REVISE ESTIMATES. The annual revision of the monthly retail sales estimates will be published in the press release the week of April 26. Unadjusted estimates will be revised for the months of January 1993 through March 1999, while corresponding adjusted data will be revised for January 1990 through March 1999. ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES SUMMARY - JANUARY 1999 The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail sales for January adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $232.2 billion, an increase of 0.2 percent (+/-0.7%) from the previous month and up 6.1 percent (+/-0.9%) from January 1998. Total sales for the November through January period were up 6.4 percent (+/-0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The November to December percent change was revised from +0.9 percent (+/-0.7%) to +1.0 percent (+/-0.3%). Durable goods increased 0.2 percent (+/-1.4%) from December and were 7.5 percent above last year. Building materials were up 9.1 percent from January a year ago, while automotive sales were up 8.5 percent during the same period. Nondurable goods increased 0.3 percent (+/-0.6%) from last month and were up 5.1 percent from January 1998. General merchandise sales were up 7.3 percent from January a year ago. The advance estimates are based on a small subsample of the Bureau's full retail sales sample. Estimates from the advance and the subsequent full survey can differ because of the earlier reporting in the advance and because of sampling variability present in both surveys. The Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report for February is scheduled to be released March 11, 1999 at 8:30 a.m. TABLE 1A: ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--JANUARY 1999 Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of Dollars) 1999 1998 1998 SIC Kind of business code Jan. Dec. Nov. adv. prel. final Retail trade, total........... 232,212 231,665 229,463 Total (excl. auto group).. 174,217 173,812 172,831 Durable goods, total........ 98,762 98,584 96,761 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 14,558 14,556 14,283 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. (*) 11,269 11,033 525 Hardware stores................. (*) 1,300 1,284 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 57,995 57,853 56,632 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 54,643 54,541 53,365 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (*) (NA) (NA) 553 Auto and home supply stores..... (*) 3,312 3,267 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 13,614 13,663 13,508 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. (*) 6,549 6,448 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ (*) 6,172 6,125 5722 Household appliance stores.... (*) (NA) (NA) Nondurable goods, total..... 133,450 133,081 132,702 53 General merchandise group stores.. 30,611 30,160 30,163 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 24,100 23,757 23,670 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) (*) 24,188 24,092 533 Variety stores.................. (*) 1,040 1,073 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... (*) 5,363 5,420 54 Food stores....................... 37,650 37,853 37,536 541 Grocery stores.................. 35,307 35,487 35,179 554 Gasoline service stations......... 12,388 12,446 12,334 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 10,477 10,376 10,438 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... (*) 934 967 562,3 Women's clothing, specialty stores........................ (*) 2,697 2,636 565 Family clothing stores.......... (*) (NA) (NA) 566 Shoe stores..................... (*) 1,755 1,730 58 Eating and drinking places........ 21,355 21,395 21,280 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 9,191 9,116 9,107 592 Liquor stores..................... (*) 2,240 2,166 5961 Total mail order................... (*) 4,567 4,628 53,56,57, GAF................................ (*) 62,524 62,365 594 1998 1997 SIC Kind of business code Jan.(r) Dec.(r) Retail trade, total........... 218,883 216,935 Total (excl. auto group).. 165,434 163,338 Durable goods, total........ 91,859 90,712 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 13,345 12,824 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. 10,173 9,916 525 Hardware stores................. 1,185 1,148 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 53,449 53,597 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 50,352 50,492 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (NA) (NA) 553 Auto and home supply stores..... 3,097 3,105 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 13,179 12,714 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. 6,279 6,206 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ 5,923 5,540 5722 Household appliance stores.... (NA) (NA) Nondurable goods, total..... 127,024 126,223 53 General merchandise group stores.. 28,517 28,145 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 22,520 22,270 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) 22,984 22,704 533 Variety stores.................. 950 925 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... 5,047 4,950 54 Food stores....................... 35,943 35,991 541 Grocery stores.................. 33,640 33,708 554 Gasoline service stations......... 12,647 12,874 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 10,224 9,957 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... 904 891 562,3 Women's clothing, specialty stores........................ 2,750 2,634 565 Family clothing stores.......... (NA) (NA) 566 Shoe stores..................... 1,735 1,741 58 Eating and drinking places........ 20,003 19,857 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 8,498 8,352 592 Liquor stores..................... 2,023 2,072 5961 Total mail order................... 4,315 4,028 53,56,57, GAF................................ 59,956 58,629 594 * Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. NA Not available. r Revised. TABLE 1B: ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--JANUARY 1999 Not adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of Dollars) 1999 1998 1998 SIC Kind of business code Jan. Dec. Nov. adv. prel. final Retail trade, total........... 202,655 277,055 228,399 Total (excl. auto group).. 152,838 224,614 178,191 Durable goods, total........ 83,265 108,060 90,952 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 10,715 13,394 13,235 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. (*) 10,120 10,338 525 Hardware stores................. (*) 1,385 1,252 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 49,817 52,441 50,208 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 46,938 49,305 47,068 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (*) 43,113 41,156 553 Auto and home supply stores..... (*) 3,136 3,140 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 12,443 19,291 14,653 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. (*) 7,937 7,048 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ (*) 9,591 6,646 5722 Household appliance stores.... (*) 1,055 900 Nondurable goods, total..... 119,390 168,995 137,447 53 General merchandise group stores.. 23,581 50,218 35,007 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 18,268 40,505 27,789 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) (*) 41,136 28,256 533 Variety stores.................. (*) 1,776 1,196 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... (*) 7,937 6,022 54 Food stores....................... 36,689 41,220 36,821 541 Grocery stores.................. 34,601 38,149 34,511 554 Gasoline service stations......... 11,558 12,309 11,853 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 7,554 16,787 11,604 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... (*) 1,645 1,101 562,3 Women's clothing, specialty stores........................ (*) 4,450 2,820 565 Family clothing stores.......... (*) 7,183 5,001 566 Shoe stores..................... (*) 2,289 1,680 58 Eating and drinking places........ 19,732 21,309 20,152 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 8,934 11,167 8,852 592 Liquor stores..................... (*) 3,035 2,142 5961 Total mail order................... (*) 6,850 5,693 53,56,57, GAF................................ (*) 104,311 70,280 594 1998 1997 SIC Kind of business code Jan. Dec. Retail trade, total........... 194,449 258,278 Total (excl. auto group).. 147,052 210,166 Durable goods, total........ 79,575 98,932 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 10,076 11,756 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. 7,874 8,885 525 Hardware stores................. 999 1,230 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 47,397 48,112 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 44,662 45,190 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... 39,026 39,749 553 Auto and home supply stores..... 2,735 2,922 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 12,237 17,924 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. 5,764 7,522 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ 5,585 8,592 5722 Household appliance stores.... 817 1,055 Nondurable goods, total..... 114,874 159,346 53 General merchandise group stores.. 22,077 46,690 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 17,138 37,859 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) 17,420 38,519 533 Variety stores.................. 710 1,539 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... 4,229 7,292 54 Food stores....................... 35,464 38,789 541 Grocery stores.................. 33,405 35,832 554 Gasoline service stations......... 11,888 12,771 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 7,479 16,039 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... 778 1,569 562,3 Women's clothing, specialty stores........................ 1,999 4,356 565 Family clothing stores.......... 2,712 6,639 566 Shoe stores..................... 1,284 2,256 58 Eating and drinking places........ 18,563 19,639 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 8,405 10,281 592 Liquor stores..................... 1,819 2,799 5961 Total mail order................... 3,948 6,146 53,56,57, GAF................................ 48,294 97,506 594 * Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. NA Not available. r Revised. TABLE 2: PERCENT CHANGE IN ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--JANUARY 1999 Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Percent Change) Jan. Dec. 1999 1998 adv. prel. from-- from-- SIC Kind of business Dec. Jan. Nov. Dec. CODE 1998 1998 1998 1997 Prel. Final Final Final Retail trade, total........... +0.2 +6.1 +1.0 +6.8 Total (excl. auto group).. +0.2 +5.3 +0.6 +6.4 Durable goods, total........ +0.2 +7.5 +1.9 +8.7 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 0.0 +9.1 +1.9 +13.5 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ +0.2 +8.5 +2.2 +7.9 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. +0.2 +8.5 +2.2 +8.0 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. -0.4 +3.3 +1.1 +7.5 Nondurable goods, total..... +0.3 +5.1 +0.3 +5.4 53 General merchandise group stores.. +1.5 +7.3 0.0 +7.2 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased dept.). +1.4 +7.0 +0.4 +6.7 531 Dept. stores (in. leased dept.). (NA) (NA) +0.4 +6.5 54 Food stores....................... -0.5 +4.7 +0.8 +5.2 541 Grocery stores.................. -0.5 +5.0 +0.9 +5.3 554 Gasoline service stations......... -0.5 -2.0 +0.9 -3.3 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... +1.0 +2.5 -0.6 +4.2 58 Eating and drinking places........ -0.2 +6.8 +0.5 +7.7 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... +0.8 +8.2 +0.1 +9.1 Not adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Percent Change) Jan. Dec. 1999 1998 adv. prel. from-- from-- SIC Kind of business Dec. Jan. Nov. Dec. CODE 1998 1998 1998 1997 Prel. Final Final Final Retail trade, total........... -26.9 +4.2 +21.3 +7.3 Total (excl. auto group).. -32.0 +3.9 +26.1 +6.9 Durable goods, total........ -22.9 +4.6 +18.8 +9.2 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. -20.0 +6.3 +1.2 +13.9 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ -5.0 +5.1 +4.4 +9.0 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. -4.8 +5.1 +4.8 +9.1 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. -35.5 +1.7 +31.7 +7.6 Nondurable goods, total..... -29.4 +3.9 +23.0 +6.1 53 General merchandise group stores.. -53.0 +6.8 +43.5 +7.6 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased dept.). -54.9 +6.6 +45.8 +7.0 531 Dept. stores (in. leased dept.). (NA) (NA) +45.6 +6.8 54 Food stores....................... -11.0 +3.5 +11.9 +6.3 541 Grocery stores.................. -9.3 +3.6 +10.5 +6.5 554 Gasoline service stations......... -6.1 -2.8 +3.8 -3.6 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... -55.0 +1.0 +44.7 +4.7 58 Eating and drinking places........ -7.4 +6.3 +5.7 +8.5 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... -20.0 +6.3 +26.2 +8.6 NA Not available. SOURCE: Advance Monthly Retail Sales--JANUARY 1999 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Ronald Piencykoski (301) 457-2713/2666.